Submitted by Denis Lafont-Tr...09.09.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
Google has launched a brand new open source browser named Chrome.
The first day after the launch, Google is said to have 1% market share.
By day two, Chrome is given 3%.
Will Google Chrome continue to grow at that pace? Will Chrome users switch back to Firefox or IE?
Prediction: Google Chrome will have 5% market share by the end of 2008. Bets will close on December 31, 2008 while judgment will occur no later than when the December 2008 metric is reported. Judgment will be made based on http://marketshare.hitslink.com/ reporting for Google Chrome. The number used will be the last % available for the month.
Let the community decide. Place your bets!
Current Community Consensus 13%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 22 2008 | Current Consensus: | 13.01% | Total Bets: | 89 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 13.01% |
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Disclosure: I have an against position on this prediction although I am using Chrome for my 95% of my browsing.
Despite the current popularity of Chrome, below are my reasons that makes it less probable for Chrome to break the 5% market share mark:
1) Chrome is only a beta and is available for Windows XP/Vista (from now until possibly end of year).
2) Chrome Mac will be available at the earliest November (per optimistic Sergev Brin when he states "months"). Chrome Linux may follow but there is no mention of this.
3) IE 8 will be out in November (confirmed). This will cause increased IE usage.
4) Firefox 3.1 will be out before end of 2008 This will cause increase Firefox usage.
5) The 3% GetClicky metric is a intraday spike and does not conform to the same measurement by Hitslink. Judgment criteria uses final monthly metric which is not sensitive to daily spikes.
6) According to Histlink, Chrome daily average is trending lower and is averaging about 1% (http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?sample=21&qprid=43&qpcustom=...)
7) Chrome still does not have add-on functionality (significant Firefox users will revert back)
8) Chrome is subject to some basic and serious security vulnerabilities (note the recent security vulnerabilities reported)..
Other articles for consideration ..
http://karthikmurali.blogspot.com/2008/09/browser-wars-inside-look.html
I welcome comments that would argue "FOR" the prediction as I am not from the pure IT industry and my insights are therefore limited.
For users browsing Ars Technica, Chrome browser peaked at 13% and leveled to 7%. This is fairly typical as early adopters are significant readers of technical sites like Ars Technica.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080910-aweek-of-chrome-googles-br...
Either folks are cashing out, @David, or they are taking you up on your challenge. ;)
@Eric, either I was too convincing or folks think that I am talking "crap". Regardless, I am backing up the truck for some more :)
Web stats company Clicky showed 2.77% penetration across 45,000 sites after Day 1. 5% by year end is a stroll in the park.
My blog item on this: http://community.zdnet.co.uk/blog/0,1000000567,10009150o-2000561249b,00....
@Ian, I am well aware of that fact (see comment #1). Day 1 spikes are signs of folks testing out the new Chrome. The judgment criteria is not for an intraday spike but the final monthly metric by Hitslink (whose set of website used is NOT the same as that of Clicky). Just look at http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?sample=21&qprid=43&qpcustom=..., it is clear that the trend is heading downwards. To reach 5%, it will require significant longer term adopters. That said, I welcome the opportunity to load up even more. Thanks!
Chrome losing market share with daily average down to 0.7%, the source of metric used for judgment of this prediction. Seems like some of my reasonings are the same ones mentioned :).
Similar articles about the downtrend:
http://blog.internetnews.com/apatrizio/2008/09/chromes-market-share-less...
First-off...
Using "Clicky" and "Ars", to estimate users, is like looking outside to see how many scooters are on the road around the world. 40,000 websites out of 400,000,000,000 is hardly a significant percentage of the pie to monitor. They only monitor "Tiny" websites, and none are in the top 40,000 listings. (They just don't offer anything that a top website needs for monitoring.
Any-who...
The numbers they show are a spike, and than an average of about 1.5%... Amazing that the results instantly drop and lock at a fixed percentage for days on end... The numbers they have are fraudulent, at best. A guess of a guess of a guess. (They don't have a system in place for real monitoring, they have only half the code. Not to mention, the code they use, only a few sites actually use, which returns the browser info. Image-counters and script-blockers report NONE as the browser. EG, they don't have 40,000 samples of browsers, only 40,000 sites that use the code.)
Again... Any-who...
Most "US" sites are showing 4-7% and climbing. Those same users ALSO use MSIE, and/or FIRE-FOX, and/or OTHER browsers. If your site shows mostly FF users... it is because you site possibly does not WORK or LOOK GOOD or INTEREST a majority of the normal users. If 20% are the total number of FF users, and you have 80% on your site... You are not keeping the 80% of the other users with MSIE. There is a reason for that. (Yes, it could be that people who "Stereotypically" use FF are interested in your site... Great... you just attracted 80% of 20% of the population... That is 16% of the world, for the un-technical. That is if ALL FF users visited... which is not likely.)
I agree, Chrome is nothing special, except for the extra privacy, ease of use, lack of useless features, speed of "Javascript - based" pages, stability on non-gimmick non-junk/flash websites, and quick click/find favorites that "I" use every month/day/hour.
It has some flaws, few, but they exist... Not as many as FF and MSIE have, and they do nothing about. Oh, yea... those are flawless browsers... no exploits... that's why the 80% live off scanners and plugins and protection programs... because they are flawless. Get over yourself.
I use all three, Chrome, MSIE, FF... each has a purpose...
I use Chrome for browsing, MSIE for my secure transactions (On KNOWN websites.), FF for code-help using Fire-Bug (No other reason, as a browser, it stinks.) I also use FF if I am poking around in unfamiliar territory, so it gets infected, instead of my MSIE getting infected. I know most of the risks, and FF is just as horribly bad as MSIE, mostly because it doesn't do the security checking on most of the dangerous exploits. (Amazingly, also why it is a "Little" faster then MSIE.)
Chrome will out-grow FireFox, simply because it is not for the techno-bandits, it is for the 80% of the rest of the world. Unfortunately, it will have the same issues that FF has... It will always be less than MSIE, since it does not come DEFAULT on any OS as the "Primary Browser", which is the only reason MSIE is even popular, and why more people are not using FF today.
As of September 15, Net Applications report Google Chrome market share down to 0.77%
Did not happen. Chrome ended 2008 at 1.04% market share. Unfavorable judgment can now be rendered.
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