Submitted by Larry Kubal02.29.2008
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This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
Specifically: according to comScore, Facebook had 34.7 million uniques in December 2007. The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques.
Current Community Consensus 1%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 1.48% | Total Bets: | 37 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 51.25% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 0.50% |
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@Larry, are you referring to US uniques or Worldwide uniques?
Facebook gaining on MySpace
@TIS, what if Facebook breaks 39.9M unique prior to December 2008 report?
Well, Larry Kubal wrote this prediction. If you read this very specifically, it could be read as a prediction for the future. However, I personally believe that the "spirit" Larry was going for meant any month in 2008. If Facebook broke that milestone in July, for example, I would likely close this as having occurred. It was a very early prediction, before we were all fully "trained" (and I still make mistakes). ;)
@TIS, more clarification ... the prediction says "The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques.", Note the keyword here is "LESS THAN".
So, if it breaks 39.9M uniques between now and end of 2008, an unfavorable judgement shall be made? Can a case be made that Facebook may begin to losing uniques after hitting a peak above 39.9M (let's say late October) and ended up with less than 39.9M at end of 2008?
Can TIS add any clarification to the prediction verbiage to help improve the prediction verbiage?
ConnectU lost the court appeal. ConnectU can now be assiimilated into Facebook.
Unique visitor in US has hit 49M
Facebook has grown by a stupendous 300 per cent in Europe over the last year – according to the latest ComScore statistics – and could soon have outgrown its US equivalent.
With the social networking site working hard on making itself more culturally relevant in non-US markets, the dividends appear to be huge, with a not-inconsiderable 38 per cent growth in the US – still its largest market – overshadowed by some stunning growth rates from the rest of the world.
Europe's 303 per cent growth saw it grow from an audience of 8 million unique visitors to 35 million, only 14 million behind the US total.
This is press release from comScore .... http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2396
Upon re-read, the posted comScore article shows 49M numbers for North America rather than US. The Venture Beat article (http://venturebeat.com/2008/08/13/comscore-googles-still-the-king-buying...) shows that the US number came in at 39.1M which does not yet meet the judgement criteria. Looks like another month of ROI on this one before the August metric is released by comScore.
http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2472
Facebook hit 40,959,000 US visitors in August.
It is rather odd that this prediction is still not judged given the metric met judgment criteria.
Actually, guys, technically speaking... "The bet is that Facebook's December 2008 comScore number will be less than 39.9 million uniques."
How can we possibly close this prediction if December has yet to arrive? What if their numbers totally meet the prediction as Larry wrote it for the month of December? It reads, literally, as a prediction attached to December, 2008, not anything else.
@Eric, seems reasonable to me. Look at comment #3, #4 and #5 though. BTW, I do not have any active bets on this one.
@Eric: Mmmm, I haven't been paying attention very closely to this one.
A wise man said "If Facebook broke that milestone in July, for example, I would likely close this as having occurred."
While you certainly didn't say you WOULD close it early, this is at least as good an indication as you've previously given on reasons for early judgment.
Unlike David I do have a position (significant) on this prediction.
OK, @Bradley. I hear you. Now, take your player hat off for a second and put your judge hat on. Pretend you're sitting there in a black robe, gavel in hand. Quite a few people are attached to this event. Pretend - just pretend - that the overall number for 2008 doesn't break 15%, but we judge it early based on a single month (or two).
Imagine the pitchforks and torches being lit. The chanting of an angry mob outside the doors.
With @Larry Kubal being silent on his intentions, I'm going to piss someone off no matter how this is ruled.
If, however, I sit here and wait until the December number is announced, I can guarantee that I make the right decision. I hate to wait, especially since FB's numbers will likely only increase, but markets aren't always meant for day trading. Heck - look at the nightmare the casino known as Wall Street has created.
@ Eric:
I would have absolutely no concern with that decision in the absence of guidance (stipulated the guidance was somewhat qualified). Given that there WAS an indication, I'm not thrilled that it wasn't followed. Given the qualification made at the time I'm okay with it not being followed, just not thrilled. Especially given an explicit request for clarification made by David in August.
Removing the player hat for a moment, I was slightly surprised by the interpretation given in your July 23 post. That said, it fit how many things were being handled to adjust to the spirit of the predictions. Going off of December's data is all I would have expected other than because of that post up until the moment I saw your October 10th message.
Of note, the reference to "overall number for 2008" in your most recent post is of concern. That's absolutely NOT what's mentioned in the prediction text and would be a significant change. Even if that number is also up 15%+ vs. Dec 2007 I would be extraordinarily unhappy if it were to be used. I assume that's not what you intended.
Would I like to free up the couple of million (or whatever it's at right now, I haven't checked) that I have locked up now rather than wait nearly another 3 months? Absolutely. Will it actually affect my game play or enjoyment if that doesn't happen? Certainly not significantly and probably not at all.
In case anyone cares, the September number was announced at 41,416,000.
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