Submitted by Eric Hill08.11.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment on August 13, 2008: To the surprise of the Industry Standard community, the Winklevoss twins, representing the US at the Beijing Olympics, placed second in their Wednesday semifinal to advance to the final in Men's pair rowing. The community got this one wrong by betting the prediction down to 29%. Judged at S$100.
Back in April, Facebook reached a settlement for an undisclosed amount with brothers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the founders of ConnectU. The Winklevoss’ alleged that Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, stole their idea for a college-based social network from them and their colleague, Divya Narendra, back at Harvard.
While the settlement terms were never released to the public, the case was closed and put to rest.
But the Winklevoss’ are more than Internet entrepreneurs. Apparently they are also Olympic athletes representing the US, and are competing in rowing at Beijing. And while they lost their first match, they won their second, thus qualifying them for the semi-finals on Wednesday.
This is a prediction that the Winklevoss brothers will win their semifinals match on Wednesday at the Beijing Olympics, in that they will qualify for the finals. It can be viewed online on Wednesday, August 13, at 4:20 am eastern.
Bets will close before the match, on August 12, 2008.
(photo credit: London Annie)
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Aug 12 2008 | Current Consensus: | 28.91% | Total Bets: | 12 |
| Today's Change: | -7.68% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 26.89% |
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Comments
This one is a toss up. But looking at their heat times, I would say a bias towards NOT winning.
They pulled it out and finished second in their heat to advance.
Good for them. Ouch for me.
ConnectU lost the court appeal. ConnectU can now be assiimilated into Facebook.
@Daniel, I pulled out of the bet in the last minute as I had a change of gut feel that they would actually make it. Guess my gut checked out and I came out favorably on this one :)
I only saw their first match. They were so terribly off I almost couldn't believe they'd won in a different heat.
@TIS, I never understand the phrase "Judged at S$100". What does it mean?
Here are my bets on this prediction ...
Aug 12 2008 Cash out at 28% odds S$39,254.05
Aug 12 2008 Bet against at 38% odds S$33,978.45
Aug 12 2008 Cash out at 34% odds S$233,376.48
Aug 11 2008 Bet against at 41% odds S$75,973.50
Aug 11 2008 Bet against at 45% odds S$124,983.46
Net: +S$37,695.12
David: just take it as synonymous with cashed out at 100%.
It's carryover from other sites which list current betting odds in terms of $0-$100 (usually with a prefix indicating that it isn't dollars, but rather the currency of the site, in this case S$).
@Bradley, thanks!!! I would recommend TIS, henceforth, to use "Judged at 100%" instead to avoid confusion. Perhaps, I may be the only one confused but it would be better for newer members in the TIS community.
Noted, David. Sometimes we forget that prediction markets are still a very new concept in general. We can use the percentage as a qualifier, too.
Ouch. They came in last in Finals!
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