Submitted by Dan Frommer03.04.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment: It has been reported that Apple has met this goal. Judged at 100%. -- The industry Standard
Original prediction: Apple's goal is to ship at least 10 million iPhones during 2008. Will they?
Prediction: Apple will ship 10 million iPhones by, or before, December 31, 2008.
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Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 84.55% | Total Bets: | 50 |
| Today's Change: | 1.35% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 86.99% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 50.00% |
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Should hit the 10 million mark soon:
http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/07/29/1000-apps-today-100...
I believe the spirit of the prediction is a count of Iphones sold in 2008. That means the 2G Iphones sold in 2007 do not count towards this prediction. We are probably at the 7M or 8M around Sept. To reach 10M by end of 2008 (excl 2007) is still possible. ROI might be closer to Nov. That would be a long time $ is frozen in the bet. Then again, continued demand might push it earlier.
@David That depends on how much the background and title text influences interpretations of the prediction text.
And a cautionary note that we need to continue getting better about writing prediction text.
@Bradley, I agree with you that prediction text need to improve on clarity (in general). I advocate the practice of explicit listing of the criteria(s) with a target date that will be used for judgement. This minimizes misinterpretation and set an expectation on when judgement can/will be made.
As for this prediction, because the texts are relatively sparse, I strongly believe that 2007 iPhone sales/shipments (3,704,000) should be excluded from consideration as per the intent of the prediction. That means, as of July 13, the number stands at only 3,420,000.
That said, iPhone production is pushing 800,000 units/week (http://mobilementalism.com/2008/08/04/iphone-sales-explode-beyond-all-fo...). Early estimates still shows a likelihood of passing 10M mark for total shipped in 2008 (http://www.toptechnews.com/story.xhtml?story_title=Analysts_Expect_Apple...).
There are no shortage of devil's advocate as well. This article projects less than 10M shipped in 2008 (http://www.smartbrief.com/news/ctia/storyDetails.jsp?issueid=4F52B929-D9...). Also, the new firmware 2.0.1 might be vexing some iPhone users around the world (http://www.engadget.com/2008/08/05/iphone-2-0-1-breaking-some-carrier-un...) might put some damper on it.
@TIS, please state TIS position on how will this be judged so there is no room for debate. Also, I think "shipped" is the keyword here rather than "sold". Wonder what source can be used for judgement on this (Apple press release?). Also, suggestion to revise the "Suggest a Prediction" page with additional instruciton on addition of judgement criteria(s).
@David I agree this should be interpreted as 10mm phones shipped in 2008 (so exclusive of the 2007 phones). That said, I've been wrong about how prediction wording will be interpreted in the past and will likely be wrong in the future. And this is one of those cases that could go either way.
@Bradley, at 800K weekly production rate, excluding the 2007 numbers won't matter. As I have indicated earlier, this looks like a done deal around Nov for total shipped (barring unexpected production problems). I wonder how much NAND flash memory has Apple procured to sustain a 3G iPhone 7x production rate relative to 2G iPhones.
Matters for when it closes, obviously.
I'd expect a boost in demand in November/December again, so I'm likewise confident that whether 2007 is counted or not isn't going to matter in the final direction of resolution.
Shouldn't be too hard to hit 10mil with the below info.
The latest report from Piper Jaffray analyst and well-known Apple prognosticator Gene Munster estimates that Apple is averaging sales of 95 iPhones per day for each of its 188 retail locations throughout the US. The estimate is based on checks on sales at Apple Stores over the last two weeks as well as Apple's claim of 1 million units sold over the first weekend.
http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/08/13/analyst-iphones-fly...
All told, Munster estimates that Apple will move a total of 4.47 million iPhones this quarter, including sales from US Apple Stores, AT&T stores, and international sales. However, his estimate doesn't take in to account the additional 21 countries that will launch the iPhone 3G on August 22, nor does it include sales from the recent deal with Best Buy.
Best Buy will become the first third-party retailer to sell the iPhone 3G come September, according to new information available to AppleInsider. 970 Best Buy stores and 16 Best Buy Mobile specialty outlets will begin carrying the device for the first time on September 7, and the official announcement may come as early as tomorrow.
http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/08/12/iphone-3g-could-be-...
Here is the latest (http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/09/08/mixed-data-on-smart...)
Total iPhones shipped in 2008 is estimated at 8.069M units
1Q08 - 1.703M (confirmed)
2Q08 - 0.717M (confirmed)
3Q08 - 5.64M (estimated)
4Q08 - 1.931M to meet judgment criteria
What does this mean? Well, prediction will not be judged until beginning of 2009 when 4Q08 metric is reported. So, ROI is 3 months away before a favorable judgment can be rendered.
NOTE: I am excluding the confirmed 3.704M units shipped in 2007. In my opinion, these do NOT count towards meeting the prediction criteria.
Looks like Apple is most of the way there.
http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/10/06/apple-iphone-3gs-9190680...
@TIS, it is my opinion that this prediction has been closed prematurely. The method used to estimate is merely a way to estimate and by no means a formal declaration of actual shipped. The use of IMEI is not an exact method and has never been considered an acceptable standard way to determine this metric.
According to http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/10/21results.html, Apple sold 6.9M iPhones last quarter. Adding up all the sale so far this year, the current total stands at 9.32M which does not satisfy the judgment criteria. So, this bet was closed prematurely indeed. The IMEI approached was not accurate as I had indicated previously.
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