Talk about an each-way bet! This is a pretty silly prediction; it's a bit like saying "Microsoft will buy Yahoo! or it will do something else".

Seems like an easy bet against, to me.

Amazon slashed the price today. "The Kindle, Amazon’s (AMZN) hyped-up e-book reader, is in stock but with a new price -- $359, $40 cheaper than it has been in the past . . . the Kindle came out in November (6 months ago) and this is a 10% price drop."

So abandoning it is defined as improving it with a new model? I predict that Apple "abandons" the iPhone by releasing a new model in 2008.

Crunchgear says Kindle 2.0 coming in Oct - which qualifies as in favor as a major redesign...
http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/07/15/kindle-20-coming-around-october-200...

Sounds like the Kindle 2.0 should qualify (either version of Kindle 2.0 that's being talked about -- the smaller version or the larger).

Still a few months out, so might not be worth the wait, depending on other uses one can find for some S$.

I would have to think that, after all the time Kindle has graced the top of Amazon's homepage, 240k is not a happy number.

Putting forth a big-time redesign before Christmas would make good business sense. Question is 1) will they and 2) can the supply chain support it? Usually when a new product is released, "version 2" is already deep in development. I'm not so interested in a version 2 that isn't completely mind blowing, personally.

@Eric: "the first new model wouldn't be a big enough upgrade"

How does that square with:

"The source told us that Amazon has “skipped three or four generations,” comparing the old Kindle to the 1st gen iPod and the new version to something like the sexy iPod Mini."

from the article that you're quoting (and referring to the first upgrade)?

Granted, what's described doesn't sound like they're skipping 3-4 generations, so there's a disconnect somewhere in the writer's information/story.

Of course the pictured "rendering" looks basically like a Kindle 1.0 done in pink.

Which I would not say counts as a major redesign. Not to mention the prediction text explicitly rules that out.

The probability that the Kindle will be "abandoned" given recent news is highly unlikely. However, if you read the prediction’s fine print, this prediction isn't just about whether or not the Kindle will be abandoned.

Instead, some form of redesign, such as adding a color screen, will constitute a favorable prediction judgment.

@ David. Question: why were “abandon” and “redesign” lumped together in this prediction?

In general, I think we should closely match prediction titles with the text explaining how the prediction will be judged. It’s possible that someone might trade a prediction on the title alone without reading the full prediction. In life, a lot of people skip over the fine print.

All, let me know if I’m out in left field on this one and am the only person who has an issue with the prediction’s title. Thanks.

@Garrick, my original suggestion did not include the redesign criteria. When it was accepted by TIS as a prediction, the title was modified with "one way or another" and the additional redesign criteria was added.

@Garrick, I concur. The heading might be best revised to reflect either critieria for consistency.

Personally, I can't believe the hype caused by the statements today. Equating the Kindle to an iPod is rather reckless for a few reasons ...

1. Kindle is designed to have wireless service connectivity (which requires the support of a wireless carrier). In the US, the carrier of choice is Sprint and the wireless technology used is EVDO Rev 0. An iPod does not require a carriers service and as such is more portable.
2. Size - Kindle is way too big to be truly portable like iPod
3. Cost - Kindle still goes for about $360. Pricing should be lower for broader mass appeal
4. Music has much more mass appeal relative to reading

Having sold a mere 240K units in a market of over 300M population, I consider the Kindle an underperformer and Amazon miscalculated.

Be sure to slow down and read those links carefully, David. The first "upgrade" is expected in the next 1-2 months, and it is expected to be a very low-grade update. Not enough the meet the criteria (if true). The wholesale redesign with the larger form factor, screen, etc. is scheduled "in the coming months." Now, if that's pre-January, you're absolutely right. But the mild upgrade (which all reports say there will be two in the next few months - a tiny upgrade, then a full-fledged 2.0 upgrade). The major 2.0 upgrade would be a valid trigger to judge this early, as Kindle 1.0 will officially be dead by then, or at least nearly forgotten (if it isn't already). I've never personally ever seen a Kindle in public - ever. When you consider how long the Kindle has graced Amazon.com's homepage, they must be really be performing poorly.

Check this out:
"There will be no new version of the Kindle this year," Amazon.com spokesman Craig Berman told The New York Times. Berman seems intent on stomping rumors of a new Kindle for Christmas. His message? Stop saving up. Buy some more e-books instead.

So, here's the original post from Brad Stone at the New York Times in his Bits technology blog.

Here's the important part:

I asked Craig Berman, Amazon’s chief spokesman, for comment on a possible Kindle 2.0, and today he responded.

“Don’t believe everything you read,” Mr. Berman said. “There’s a lot of rumor and speculation about the Kindle. One thing I can tell you for sure is that there will be no new version of the Kindle this year. A new version is possible sometime next year at the earliest.”

This absolutely kills this prediction/rumor. It doesn't need to stay open until the end of the year, as Amazon's own chief spokesman has now spoken on the record. Some cynics could argue that he's lying, that he's saying this simply to try and to continue to sell Kindle 1.0's. We have to take him at his word.

Regardless of any arguments over the wording of the prediction, the bottom line is that this is beyond debate now - it's not going to happen "one way or the other."

If later the fabled 2.0 comes out before January (not the minor update but the major overhaul), we'll reassess this. Judged, 0%.